The Factors of the Rise and Fall of Governments According to Ibn Khaldun

Abstract

This study analyzes Ibn Khaldun’s cyclical theory of the rise and fall of states, focusing on the interplay of internal and external factors that shape the trajectory of governments. Ibn Khaldun’s model, rooted in the concepts of asabiyyah (social cohesion)and umran  (civilization) posits that states undergo,  phases of establishment, consolidation, and decline, much like living organisms. The research applies this framework to both historical and contemporary contexts, with a particular emphasis on Afghanistan, to illustrate how leadership quality, social unity, moral values, economic conditions, and geopolitical influences collectively. determine state stability or vulnerability The findings show that Ibn Khaldun’s cyclical theory explains the rise and fall of governments as a process driven mainly by strong leadership, social cohesion (asabiyyah), and the gradual weakening of unity—across generations. The study also highlights that both internal factors—such as corruption, luxury, and weak leadership and external pressures, such as economic crises, foreign interference, and emerging rival groups, contribute significantly to political instability and governmental collapse. The importance of the cyclical theory of government formation, according to Ibn Khaldun's ideas, has been continuously highlighted, which has pointed to the current era of Muslim governments and the Afghan government in understanding and solving the existing and emerging challenges